**Strategic foresight does not attempt to offer definitive answers about what the future will hold.** Foresight understands the future as an emerging entity that’s only partially visible in the present, not a predetermined destiny that can be fully known in advance (predicted). There are no hard facts about the future and the evidence base is always incomplete. The objective is not to ‘get the future right’, but to expand and reframe the range of plausible developments that need to be taken into consideration.
Horison scanning
Horizon scanning is the systematic gathering of information to detect early signs of potentially important developments. It’s also used to identify new and emerging trends. This activity is often based on desk research, assisting in the development of the big picture of future changes. A solid horizon scanning process can help develop strategies to align with future changes. It can also be a way of identifying new trends which are later used in scenarios.
Scenario planning helps organizations anticipate change, prepare responses, and create robust strategies. The process typically starts with the combining of known facts about the operating environment with uncertain factors about the future context. Then, one selects a number of these ‘uncertainties’ or ‘drivers of change’ in the future and converts plausible paths of developments into two or more alternative stories, or ‘scenarios’. As the future unfolds, some paths generally begin to emerge as more plausible and others as less plausible. Often, the future involves a combination of paths.
The Delphi Method is a structured and interactive forecasting activity that relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer questionnaires and argue different positions. This is usually done over a few rounds. During this process, the range of answers narrows down. This is based on the reassessment of given arguments and consensus-building. In the final round, the group of experts converges toward a final, “correct” answer about the future.
https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/An-Overview-of-Foresight-Methodologies-Conway/768c525942ae89e6364569875090b87b449abeb2